Lisa and I are going to have dinner with our good friends David and Judy Kronenfeld and Al and Betsy Fix — in the Kronenfeld's back yard, socially distanced — and watch the election returns come in.
From the New York Times:
Unfortunately, said Kate Sweeny, a professor of psychology at the University of California, Riverside, studies show that anticipatory dread only increases as waiting drags on.“Quite a lot of research suggests that the worst is yet to come as far as anxiety,” said Professor Sweeny, who specializes in the psychology of waiting.
Part of the problem is the natural inclination to brace for the worst, in order to fortify yourself against potential disappointment, she said. “That tendency ramps up and moves more to the front of the mind as you get closer and closer to an outcome. Even people who are general optimists show a decline in optimism as the moment of truth draws nearer.”
Barring monkey business, if Biden loses Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, he can only win if he wins Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada.
86% percent of votes have been counted in Arizona and Biden is ahead by 3% so far there. 97% of votes have been counted in Wisconsin and Biden is ahead by 0.6% there... about 20,000 votes ahead. 86% of votes have been counted in Nevada and Biden is ahead by 0.8% there... about 8,000 votes ahead. So this is a possible path to victory for Biden, but very close.
In my scenario I'm assuming he'll lose in Georgia because I hate having my heart broken, and Trump is currently ahead by 1.6% there with votes 93% counted, according to the New York Times. But there ae a bunch of uncounted ballots from the Atlanta area of Georgia, which leans Democratic. That's why the Times thinks Biden has a decent chance to win there.
The really good news is that it seems like Biden will win Pennsylvania if mail-in ballots keep going for Biden at the rate at which it's going now.
Here's how Biden was catching up in Georgia as of 10:49 am Pacific Time, November 4th:
This was the situation in Nevada as of 2:42 pm:
This was Arizona as of 2:49 pm:
This was Pennsylvania as of 2:49 pm:
The vote count in Georgia is gradually eroding Trump's lead as the 'blue shift' continues. Here's what it looks like as of 4:39 pm today:‘Count Every Vote’: Protests Over Ballot Tallies Sweep Through U.S. Cities
Mike Baker, Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs and Simon Romero, New York Times, November 5, 2020PORTLAND, Ore. — Calling on election officials to “count every vote,” protesters marched through the streets of several American cities on Wednesday in response to President Trump’s aggressive effort to challenge the vote count in Tuesday’s presidential election.
In Minneapolis, protesters blocked a freeway, prompting arrests. In Portland, hundreds gathered on the waterfront to protest the president’s attempted interventions in the vote count as a separate group protesting the police and urging racial justice surged through downtown, smashing shop windows and confronting police officers and National Guard troops.
In Phoenix, about 150 pro-Trump protesters, some of them armed, gathered outside the county recorder’s office where a closely watched count of votes that could help determine the outcome of the election was being conducted.
In Detroit, another group of pro-Trump poll watchers gathered earlier in the day outside a ballot-counting center, demanding that officials “stop the count” of ballots after the Trump campaign filed suit to halt the count in Michigan.
Protesters also gathered in Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Chicago and elsewhere, some of them continuing the protests over racial justice and policing that have rocked the country since the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis in May. More demonstrations were scheduled for the coming days.
So the blue shift has pulled Biden to victory, but the media are being very cautious to call the winner in these states, or Arizona or North Carolina or Nevada.
I think everyone who knows what's going on predicts Biden will win all
these states except North Carolina.
November 7, 2020
It's a great day!
(Biden would later go on to win 306 electoral votes, with Trump
kicking and screaming all the way.)
November 10, 2020
In the US, cases of coronavirus went up 69% in the last two weeks, and
deaths up 23%. California is one of the best-off states, along with
some on the east coast. But it's going up here too.
November 13, 2020
The third wave of coronavirus is upon us, dwarfing the previous two in
number of new cases per day — though so far there are fewer
deaths per day than in the first wave, since doctors have learned a
lot:
It's not as bad in California as in other states. There are now 18.6 new cases per 10,000 people per week in California, as compared to about 42 in the nation as a whole: 34 in Texas, 65.3 in Michigan or — the worst — 168.7 in North Dakota, where the Republican governor just signed an order mandating the wearing of masks.
Lisa and I continue staying at home, not seeing anyone except for a 'socially distanced dinner' every week or two with friends, where we sit outside or — last time — in the garage. We go grocery shopping once a week, and go on an hour-long walk each day. I spend a lot of time on Zoom talking to students — or at least it seems like a long time, though others do much more, since I'm not teaching this quarter.
Some good news: the New York Times now considers the election settled! — with Biden winning Georgia and Arizona, and Trump winning South Carolina, just as we always suspected. This puts Biden at 306 and Trump at 232.
Trump is down to blatantly unconstitutional options, I think:
Trump Loses String of Election Lawsuits, Leaving Few Vehicles to Fight His Defeat
Alan Feuer, New York Times, November 25, 2020
President Trump suffered multiple legal setbacks in three key swing states on Friday, choking off many of his last-ditch efforts to use the courts to delay or block President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s victory.
In quick succession, Mr. Trump was handed defeats in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Michigan, where a state judge in Detroit rejected an unusual Republican attempt to halt the certification of the vote in Wayne County pending an audit of the count.
The legal losses came as Mr. Biden was declared the victor in Georgia and a day after an agency in the president’s own Department of Homeland Security flatly contradicted him by declaring that the election “was the most secure in American history” and that “there is no evidence” any voting systems malfunctioned
On Friday, 16 federal prosecutors who had been assigned to monitor the election also directly debunked claims of widespread fraud, saying in a letter to Attorney General William P. Barr that there was no evidence of substantial irregularities.
Lindsey Graham just said Trump should not concede the election and that “Republicans win because of our ideas and we lose elections because they cheat us." And listen to this from the White House trade adviser Pete Navarro:
“We are moving forward here at the White House under the assumption there will be a second Trump term,” Navarro said on Fox Business, echoing a refrain from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the president’s most steadfast allies. Those remarks represent a sharp departure from the electoral reality that President-elect Joe Biden was the victor in last week's presidential election, claiming at least 290 electoral votes and winning the popular vote by more than 5 million votes.
From Election Trust Tracker:
7 in 10 Republicans say the 2020 election was not free and fair: 48 percent of Republicans say it “definitely” was not free and fair, and another 22 percent say it “probably” was not. That’s twice the share of Republicans who said the race would not be free and fair just before the election.From the article "Ethnic antagonism erodes Republicans’ commitment to democracy":[...]
Overall trust in elections plummets among Republicans: Prior to the election, 68 percent of GOP voters said they had at least some trust in the U.S. election system. Post-election, that dropped to 34 percent.
Most Republicans in a January 2020 survey agreed that "the traditional American way of life is disappearing so fast that we may have to use force to save it." More than 40% agreed that "a time will come when patriotic Americans have to take the law into their own hands."Almost three-fourths (73.9%) agreed that "It is hard to trust the results of elections when so many people will vote for anyone who offers a handout."
McDonald’s opened a ghost kitchen restaurant last year in London, and Chick-fil-A and Qdoba, one of Chipotle’s competitors, have also been experimenting with the model, which allows for higher profits and lower labor costs.This is from:[...]
"The Digital Kitchen incorporates innovative features that will complement our rapidly growing digital business, while delivering a convenient and frictionless experience for our guests,” Curt Garner, Chipotle’s chief technology officer, said in a statement. “With digital sales tripling year over year last quarter, consumers are demanding more digital access than ever before.”
The Trump campaign claimed there were irregularities in the vote count. They urged Michigan’s majority-Republican state legislature to try to appoint its own electors if the state canvassing board, split evenly between Democrats and Republicans, failed to certify the vote.
Trump campaign legal adviser Jenna Ellis tweeted “If the state board follows suit, the Republican state legislator will select the electors. Huge win for @realDonaldTrump."
But today — after an outpouring of outrage — the
Republicans on the board agreed to certify the vote! So, Trump's
scheme fell through.
November 18, 2020
It turns out this sorry tale might
not be finished:
Late Wednesday, in yet another about-face, the two Republican election board members said they were rescinding their votes to certify the results. In affidavits, they effectively said that they had been bullied into voting for the certification and that they did not believe the Democrats on the board were following through with their promise to ensure an independent audit of the Wayne County results.Jonathan C. Kinloch, the vice chair and one of the two Democratic members of the Wayne County canvass board, said in an interview that the vote to certify remained binding.
The leaders of the Republican National Committee and the Michigan Republican Party have asked the state Board of Canvassers to delay the certification of Michigan’s election results for 14 days.Here's what might happen if the board deadlocks in another 2-2 split:The request from Ronna McDaniel, the national party chairwoman, and Laura Cox, the state chairwoman, was sent to the board on Saturday. On Monday, the board, which is split between two Republicans and two Democrats, is scheduled to meet to consider certifying the results.
If the board deadlocks on certifying the election results, Democrats will most likely take the matter to the State Court of Appeals with a request to order the Board of Canvassers to do its statutory duty and certify the results. If the board still deadlocks, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer could act to remove the board members for failing to do their jobs.So it might boil down to Michigan having a Democratic governor, which is lucky but not as good as people just doing their jobs - especially since the governor has already been getting lots of death threats on Facebook.
The first avenue to force certification is through the courts. If the board fails to certify on November 23, the Michigan Court of Appeals will order the board to certify. Liedel said the court has proceeded with contempt proceedings in the past for members of the board failing to certify and that board members refusing to certify could be charged with a misdemeanor or willful neglect of duty. If the issue is not resolved by the Court of Appeals it would go to the Michigan Supreme Court, but Michigan election lawyers agreed Friday that it going to that level is unlikely.The reason I care about this baloney is that Trump has been working hard to change the decision in Michigan.At the same time, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, has the power to remove and replace any board member, according to Michigan law, and can act without waiting for a court or anyone else. This would be a very politically complicated move for Whitmer to pursue.
When asked if Whitmer was prepared to step in if board members refuse to certify, her press secretary Tiffany Brown told CNN, "We're not to that point and hope individuals will do the right thing and respect the will of the voters."
If a board member fails to show up, the board can still act as long as a member from each party is present. If there is more than one vacancy, the governor fills the vacancy.
Can the legislature get involved and appoint their own electors? The short answer, according to Michigan election experts, is no.
Michigan’s top elections board certified Joe Biden’s win in that state’s presidential vote Monday, dealing President Donald Trump yet another blow in his effort to block the Democrat’s national victory.Even better, Trump has given the GSA the formal go-ahead with the presidential transition!The Michigan Board of State Canvassers signed off on the popular election results in a 3-0 vote.
Republican board member Aaron Van Langevelde voted to certify Biden’s victory, along with the board’s two Democrats, while the other GOP member, Norm Shinkle, abstained.
And so, a very scary transition seems to be winding down.
November 25, 2020
The peak of coronavirus deaths in the US per day was April 15th, when
2752 died. We are now going back up, and today it reached 2300. But
there's a big difference: now the deaths are scattered widely across
the entire nation, and only three counties reported a toll of more
than 20.
November 28, 2020
Some good news: a lot of Republicans at the local and state level didn't go along with Trump's scheme, and that helped save the country:
In Key States, Republicans Were Critical in Resisting Trump’s Election Narrative
Peter Baker and Kathleen Gray, New York Times, November 28, 2020
If the president hoped Republicans across the country would fall in line behind his false and farcical claims that the election was somehow rigged on a mammoth scale by a nefarious multinational conspiracy, he was in for a surprise. Republicans in Washington may have indulged Mr. Trump’s fantastical assertions, but at the state and local level, Republicans played a critical role in resisting the mounting pressure from their own party to overturn the vote after Mr. Trump fell behind on Nov. 3.
The three weeks that followed tested American democracy and demonstrated that the two-century-old system is far more vulnerable to subversion than many had imagined even though the incumbent president lost by six million votes nationwide. But in the end, the system stood firm against the most intense assault from an aggrieved president in the nation’s history because of a Republican city clerk in Michigan, a Republican secretary of state in Georgia, a Republican county supervisor in Arizona and Republican-appointed judges in Pennsylvania and elsewhere.
They refuted conspiracy theories, certified results, dismissed lawsuits and repudiated a president of their own party, leaving him to thunder about a supposed plot that would have had to include people who had voted for him, donated to him or even been appointed by him. The desperate effort to hang onto office over the will of the people effectively ended when his own director of the General Services Administration determined that Joseph R. Biden Jr. is the president-elect and a judge Mr. Trump put on the bench chastised him for ludicrous litigation.
“Free, fair elections are the lifeblood of our democracy,” Judge Stephanos Bibas, appointed by Mr. Trump in 2017, wrote for a three-judge panel of the Third Circuit Court of Appeals in Philadelphia on Friday as it dismissed the latest of dozens of legal claims filed by Mr. Trump and his allies. “Charges of unfairness are serious. But calling an election unfair does not make it so. Charges require specific allegations and then proof. We have neither here.”